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Sugar Prices to Fall,
Small Surplus seen in 2022/23

(Reuters) – Raw sugar is forecast to end this year with an annual loss of nearly 6% with the global market set to shift into a surplus in the 2022/23 season, a Reuters poll of 10 traders and analysts showed.

Prices were seen ending 2022 at 17.8 cents per lb, down 1.4% from Monday's close and 5.7% below levels at the end of 2021, according to the median forecast.

The poll consensus was for a global deficit of 1.25 million tonnes for the 2021/22 season, followed by a surplus of 750,000 tonnes in 2022/23. Raw sugar prices rose by 21.9% last year and participants said this had contributed to an expected rise in global production in the 2022/23 season.

"Good prices today will incentivise bigger crops," one participant said. Participants also cited favourable weather for sugarcane development in the Centre-South region of Brazil.

The poll had a median forecast of 560 million tonnes for 2022/23 cane production in the region, up from about 525 million in the prior season.

Sugar production was seen at 34.35 million tonnes, up from about 32 million tonnes a year earlier.

India's sugar production was seen falling slightly in 2022/23 to 30.9 million tonnes, down from 31.7 million in 2021/22, according the poll's median forecast.

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