By George Putnam, III
The Turnaround Letter
The steel stocks tend to go through boom and bust cycles depending on global economic activity. They have been pummeled over the last year, as the global economy slowed. Weakness in two big steel consuming industries, autos and construction, has been particularly troublesome for the steelmakers.
But the news about steel is not all bad. There is evidence that steel inventories are gradually being worked off to low levels. There are also signs that economic activity in China, which is a huge consumer of steel, will not fall off as far as some economists initially feared. Moreover, several steel producers took advantage of the last boom cycle to modernize their facilities and improve their balance sheets.
Could the steel stocks go lower if the global recession is prolonged? Sure. But, on the other hand, it wouldn't take much of an economic rebound to push them much higher from their current levels.
AK Steel Holding (AKS $12.15) was in dire straits in 2003, but management reshaped operations and shored up the balance sheet. Though revenues have taken a sizeable hit and operations swung to a loss in the latest quarter, cash flow has remained positive.
Arcelor Mittal (MT $22.94) is one of the world's largest steel producers with roughly 8% of world output. Acquisitions that fueled growth also grew the firm's debt load. But it has been able to pare down and extend maturities.
General Steel Holdings' (GSI $5.35) Beijing base of operations gives the company a leg up on any rebound in Chinese infrastructure activity. The balance sheet is leveraged, but the company reported a 9.7% jump in first-quarter revenues and a return to profitability.
Mechel Steel Group (MTL $5.26) is Russia's largest producer of specialty steel and the country's second largest maker of long steel products. In addition to financial risk, there is political risk associated with operating in Russia. At current valuations, though, the stock has interesting prospects.
Nucor (NUE $41.43) is one of America's largest steelmaker's/recyclers with a reputation for a strong management team and a conservative financial structure. Although it has struggled recently along with the rest of the industry, Nucor will be a survivor, almost regardless of how long the downturn lasts.
Posco (PKX $74.34) is Korea's largest steel company and fourth largest in the world. With exposure to the auto and shipping industries, the company's operations have suffered. But the financials are solid enough to suggest it will be able to capitalize on industry consolidation and growth in Asia, which may materialize sooner than in North America.
Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN $47.33), founded in 1906, has operations in recycling scrap metal, used and recycled auto parts and finished steel products. All three sectors are under pressure, as evidenced by a 42% slid in revenues for the second quarter ended Feb 28. However, strong costs controls and minimal debt allowed the company to still generate positive cash flow. Schnitzer also has some takeover appeal.
U.S. Steel (X $25.50) has over a long period of time encouraged and survived many formidable headwinds, and, we suspect they'll survive once again. In response to very weak market fundamentals, management is taking a number of actions ranging from pay, dividend and capital-spending reductions to raising additional funds via equity and debt offerings.
Worthington Industries (WOR $14.46) is a steel processor; that is, it buys coils of sheet steel that it then turns into a variety of industrial products. Management has initiated aggressive restructuring measures that should generate significant annual savings. A solid balance sheet and good cash flow bode well for Worthington's long-term future.
Editor's Note: George Putnam, III is editor of The Turnaround Letter, 225 Friend St., Ste. 801, Boston, MA 02114, 1 year, 12 issues, $195. www.turnaroundletter.com.
