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IGC sees Global Grains Surplus in 2020/21 as Crop Outlook Raised

(Reuters) – A global grains surplus is expected for the 2020/21 season, the International Grains Council said, raising its production forecast while also cutting its consumption outlook.

The IGC, in a monthly report, raised its grains production forecast by 12 million tonnes to 2.230 billion tonnes while consumption was trimmed by 4 million tonnes to 2.218 billion.

The council had seen a marginal global grains deficit for the 2020/21 season in its previous report issued in late April.

Improved corn (maize) crop outlooks for the United States and China helped to trigger the upward revision to the global grain production forecast while the IGC said the consumption outlook was lowered "owing to the weaker outlook for the industrial sector".

World stocks of grain were forecast to rise by 13 million tonnes to 627 million, year-on-year, by the end of the 2020/21 season, the first increase in four years.

The IGC raised its forecast for global corn production in the 2020/21 season by 11 million tonnes to 1.169 billion tonnes with upward revisions for the U.S. (392.5 million versus 388.8 million) and China (261.0 million versus 256.9 million).

Global corn consumption was seen at 1.177 billion tonnes with global stocks seen declining by 9 million tonnes to 288 million tonnes, a fourth successive drop.

The council put 2020/21 world wheat production at 766 million tonnes, up from its previous projection of 764 million.

Wheat stocks were seen rising by 16 million tonnes to 290 million tonnes, more than offsetting the decline in corn.

The IGC put global soybean production in 2020/21 at 363 million tonnes, marginally below its previous projection of 364 million "with an upgrade for Brazil outweighed by reductions for minor producers."

The forecast remained, however, well above the prior season's 336 million.

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